Anonymous Oscar Ballots Reveal Sinners, One Battle After Another in Tight Race

“I’m glad to be with you, Samwise Gamgee. Here at the end of all things.”

The final Oscar voting period has closed, and anyone telling you the race is over is lying.

The mystique of the Oscars depends on sealed envelopes and silent voters. Yet every season, the ballots speak. Anonymous Oscar ballots have become both a staple and a ritual of the awards season. At their best, they offer candid, unfiltered insight from the people voting on the industry’s top honors.

It is the good, the bad and the ugly of the Oscars, laid bare across 24 categories and centered on one irresistible question: What are voters actually thinking?

As Variety previously reported, this year’s digital Oscar ballot is synced to the Academy Screening Room, where members can watch nominees. Under a new rule, members must watch all nominees in a category before they can vote in it. Until then, those races remain grayed out on the ballot.

The change delayed voting for some members. In past years, some voters would simply rush through the ballot. While the new format still operates largely on the honor system, the setup nudges members to watch more contenders or abstain from categories they have not completed.

Before treating the anonymous ballot as a parlor game, it is worth considering who is casting those votes. According to the most recent Academy figures, there are 11,126 members, of which 10,136 are active voters. The body remains majority white and American, though those demographics vary by branch. The Academy is 35% women, 22% from underrepresented communities and 21% international. The actors branch, the largest with 1,311 members, has become a major driver of diversification in recent years.

The Academy can point to progress. Even so, awards voting remains a revealing exercise.

Here are some of the most notable takeaways from voters, including selections from anonymous Oscar ballots.

Best picture is a true-to-form two-film race with no daylight between them.

Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama “Sinners” and Paul Thomas Anderson’s political thriller “One Battle After Another” are, by a wide margin, the top two choices among voters. So dominant are those films that it is difficult to name a clear third-place contender. They have consumed the race.

What makes the contest especially compelling is the psychology of voters who admire both films. In at least six conversations with ballot-sharing voters, a pattern emerged: Many said some version of, “‘One Battle After Another’ is going to win best picture, but I voted for ‘Sinners.’” In some cases, that same split extended to best director: “Paul Thomas Anderson is going to win, but I voted for Ryan Coogler.”

The dynamic recalls the 2020-21 Oscar season, when some voters believed Chadwick Boseman, for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” would win best actor but ultimately cast ballots for Anthony Hopkins in “The Father.” The instinctive or “purity” choice, rather than the presumed consensus winner, appears to be shaping this race as well.

That means Coogler’s candidacy for best director is real, despite Anderson’s sweep of precursor awards.

Voter No. 1 Profile: American, actors branch, under 65, person of color

Best picture: “Sinners”
Director: Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Actor: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Supporting actor: Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Supporting actress: Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”

Good: “I loved ‘Hamnet’ and ‘Sinners.’ I don’t want to punish either film for being different kinds of great. Both gutted me in different ways.”

Bad: “I couldn’t finish any of the shorts this year. They really are a drag.”

Ugly: “I thought all 10 movies were great, but overall, not a great year for movies.”

Best actor shows Michael B. Jordan surging with Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke as spoilers.

Best actor is, by a considerable margin, the most scattered category in this ballot survey. Support is spread across several contenders, though one theme is clear: Michael B. Jordan has built enough backing to emerge as a serious favorite for his first Oscar.

Still, a meaningful number of votes also went to Leonardo DiCaprio for “One Battle After Another” and Ethan Hawke for “Blue Moon.” If Jordan has spoilers, they appear to be those two. What did not surface in significant numbers were votes for Timothée Chalamet in “Marty Supreme” or a broad wave of support for Wagner Moura in “The Secret Agent.” Both remain in the conversation, but not at the level their campaigns may have hoped.

Voter No. 2 Profile: American, craft branch, over 65, white

Best picture: “F1”
Director: Chloé Zhao
Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Actress: Kate Hudson
Supporting actor: Sean Penn
Supporting actress: Teyana Taylor

This exchange came after the voter read the ballot aloud:

Variety: “These choices are surprising and all over the place. Can you explain, like, why Chloé?”
Voter: “Because I couldn’t vote for Joe Kosinski.”
Variety: “That’s it?”
Voter: “And I think her movie is interesting.”
Variety: “Why didn’t you vote for Jessie Buckley?”
Voter: “I like Kate.”

Some of the films that were “homework” at the end.

“Hamnet,” “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value” were the late homework assignments for many members, films a notable number of voters had not seen until the final days of balloting. That timing could help Jessie Buckley, who has been a consistent force throughout the season. A fresh late screening of “Hamnet” may have worked in her favor.

Buckley is the most consistently mentioned name in best actress. There is broad enthusiasm for her performance, and “Hamnet” also appears to function as an alternative to “One Battle After Another” for some voters. Among those who were less responsive to the film, support split among Kate Hudson for “Song Sung Blue,” Rose Byrne for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” and Emma Stone for “Bugonia.” It is not a deep bench of challengers, but it does suggest the category is not entirely locked.

Voter No. 3 Profile: American, artisans branch, under 65, Black

Best Picture: “Sinners”
Director: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Actor: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Supporting actor: Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Supporting actress: Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Original screenplay: “Sinners”
Adapted screenplay: “One Battle After Another”
Casting: “Sinners”
Production design: “Sinners”
Cinematography: “Sinners”
Costume design: “Hamnet”
Film editing: “Sinners”
Makeup and hairstyling: “Frankenstein”
Sound: “Sinners”
Visual effects: “Sinners”

Good: “‘Sinners’ is the movie that made me remember what a theater is for.”

Bad: “Are we allowed to finally talk about why ‘One Battle After Another’ is a bad movie, or are we still just pretending it’s not the most problematic movie for the Black community since maybe ‘Green Book’?”

Ugly: “People are too scared to say what they think in Hollywood. That includes journalists and critics. It’s easier to come down on an underdog than say, ‘Dear Mr. Anderson, your movie is not great.’ All because he made ‘Boogie Nights’?”

Delroy Lindo led the charge early, but Sean Penn had a huge showing in the last 48 hours.

The supporting actor race appears to have narrowed to three contenders: Delroy Lindo for “Sinners,” Sean Penn for “One Battle After Another” and Stellan Skarsgård for “Sentimental Value.”

Early ballots showed strong support for Lindo, with Skarsgård close behind and little movement for Penn. But in the final 48 hours before voting closed at 5 p.m. PT, that changed. Penn’s late momentum makes him a plausible winner, which would give him a third Oscar after victories for “Mystic River” and “Milk.”

Skarsgård remains the wild card. Many voters had not yet seen “Sentimental Value” when contacted, meaning late viewings may have consolidated support around the veteran Swedish actor.

Voter No. 4 Profile: American, writers branch, under 65, woman

Best Picture: “Sinners”
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Actor: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Supporting actor: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Supporting actress: Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Original screenplay: “Sentimental Value”
Adapted screenplay: “One Battle After Another”
Casting: “Sinners”
Animated feature: “KPop Demon Hunters”
Production design: “Sinners”
Cinematography: “Train Dreams”
Costume design: “Sinners”
Film editing: “One Battle After Another”
Makeup and hairstyling: “Sinners”
Sound: “Sinners”
Visual effects: “The Lost Bus”
Original score: “Sinners”
Original song: “Sinners”
Documentary feature: “The Alabama Solution”
International feature: “It Was Just an Accident”
Animated short: “Butterfly”
Documentary short: “The Devil Is Busy”
Live-action short: “Friend of Dorothy”

Good: “There were a lot of movies I loved watching this year. Original movies are back, baby.”

Bad: “I hated ‘Frankenstein.’ And I still can’t stop thinking about the cinematography in ‘Train Dreams.”

Ugly: “I wish Stellan was in best actor, because that’s a best actor performance. Not a supporting one.”

Amy Madigan has the home field advantage, and Wunmi Mosaku has the range of demographics.

Supporting actress produced some of the most nuanced ballot conversations.

Amy Madigan’s performance in “Weapons” appears to carry substantial goodwill among Los Angeles-based industry voters, the kind of hometown backing that can matter in a close race. Her SAG Award win reflects that strength.

But Wunmi Mosaku of “Sinners” may be the most interesting contender in the category. She seems to be pulling support from two different groups: committed “Sinners” voters checking the film across the ballot, and “One Battle After Another” supporters who appear to be using the category as a place to honor another standout performance.

In at least a few cases, voters who favored “One Battle After Another” in best picture, director and actor still chose Mosaku over co-nominee Teyana Taylor in supporting actress.

That dual appeal, both passionate first-choice support and affectionate crossover backing, could be enough to carry Mosaku to a win. One voter told Variety that, in all their years voting for the Oscars, supporting actress was the toughest category they’ve ever voted on.

Voter No. 5 Profile: International, craft branch, over 65, white

Best picture: “One Battle After Another”
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
Actor: Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Supporting actor: Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Supporting actress: Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Original screenplay: “Sentimental Value”
Adapted screenplay: “One Battle After Another”
Casting: “One Battle After Another”
Production design: “Frankenstein”
Cinematography: “Train Dreams”
Costume design: “Frankenstein”
Film editing: “One Battle After Another”
Makeup and hairstyling: “Frankenstein”
Sound: “One Battle After Another”
Visual effects: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Original score: “One Battle After Another”
Original song: “Train Dreams”

Good: “I watched ‘One Battle After Another’ twice. The first time, I admired it. The second time, I had the time of my life.”

Bad: “I didn’t think ‘Sinners’ was great. It felt long and repetitive.”

Ugly: “Paul Thomas Anderson is the only filmmaker who made a movie I’ll remember 15 to 20 years from now. Everything else is lifeless.”

Cinematography is between three dynamic choices.

Cinematography may be the most competitive craft category in this ballot sample.

“Train Dreams” represents the pure craft-choice vote for many members, a recognition of Adolfo Veloso’s striking work. But “Sinners” is a serious contender, with Autumn Durald Arkapaw potentially in position to make history as the first woman to win in the category, a fact voters appeared aware of.

Despite BAFTA and American Society of Cinematographers wins for “One Battle After Another,” that film did not initially appear to hold the same level of Academy support early in voting. Still, as with Penn in supporting actor, ballots for the film increased in the final 24 hours. The race appears headed for a photo finish.

Voter No. 6 Profile: International, directors branch, over 65

Best picture ranking:

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Actress: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You”
Supporting actor: Stellan Skarsgård
Supporting actress: Teyana Taylor
Original Screenplay: “Marty Supreme”
Adapted Screenplay: “One Battle After Another”

Good: “Everyone’s acting like this year is a cage match between two movies. I keep begging people to watch what the crafts are doing. That’s where the cinema is.”

Bad: “Did ‘F1’ make any sense?”

Ugly: “I know my colleagues don’t watch all of the movies. It’s sad. Quit if you’re not going to do this. Some really care.”

“Frankenstein” looks to hold onto its three tech races, but there are a couple of coin-flips lurking in places.

“Frankenstein” looks well positioned to win production design, costume design and makeup and hairstyling. Its visual identity clearly made a lasting impression on branch voters.

Film editing appears to be a three-way race among “Sinners,” “One Battle After Another” and “F1,” though the first two seem to hold the advantage. Sound appears to be “F1’s” category to lose, with “Sinners” the most credible challenger.

Voter No. 7 Profile: American, artisan, under 65, white

Best Picture: “Sinners” (1), “One Battle After Another” (2)
Director: Ryan Coogler
Actor: Michael B. Jordan
Actress: Jessie Buckley
Supporting actor: Sean Penn
Supporting actress: Wunmi Mosaku
Original screenplay: “Sinners”
Adapted screenplay: “One Battle After Another”
Cinematography: “One Battle After Another”
Film editing: “F1”
Production design: “Frankenstein”
Costume design: “Frankenstein”
Makeup and hairstyling: “Frankenstein”
Sound: “Sinners”
Original score: “Sinners”
Original song: “Golden,” from “K-Pop Demon Hunters”
International feature: “The Voice of Hind Rajab”
Animated feature: Abstain
Documentary feature: Abstain
Shorts: Abstain

Good: “I’m all the way ‘Sinners.’ It’s bigger than the Oscars.”

Bad: “When ‘F1’ makes the best picture lineup, it’s a rough year for movies.”

Ugly: “The weakest film we’ve had in the entertainment business in a long time.”

Some final thoughts: I don’t think “Sinners” is polling lower than No. 2 in any single category where it is nominated. Not one. That consistency is staggering for a film perceived in some quarters as the sentimental favorite rather than the likely winner. While many will deem this probability unlikely, there is a version of Oscar night where “Sinners” becomes the most awarded film in Academy history — surpassing the 11 total wins of “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” “Titanic” and “Ben-Hur” — after having already been the most nominated. We’ll see when the envelopes are opened.

Final Oscar predictions will drop next week. The Oscars will air on Sunday, March 15 on ABC and Hulu.