The stakes have been raised for Amazon MGM Studios’ “Project Hail Mary.” Recall that Amazon purchased MGM in 2022 for $8.5 billion, a deal that had a lot to do with Amazon wanting to get into the theatrical business in a meaningful way. Sure, that’s going to include big franchises, but this sci-fi flick based on Andy Weir’s novel of the same name is, for most audiences, an “original” movie, which can be a tough sell these days. Amazon’s got Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) starring here, plus Phil Lord and Chris Miller (“The LEGO Movie”) in the director’s chair, but it’s got a massive budget to reckon with, too.
According to Puck, the budget for “Project Hail Mary” is at just under $200 million. The gross budget was around $248 million, but, thanks to tax credits, it was reduced significantly. That puts it in the same range as the average mega-budget franchise blockbuster. It’s also Hollywood’s biggest non-franchise sci-fi movie since Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet” in 2020, which was greatly hampered by the pandemic.
“Project Hail Mary” was already one of the biggest box office gambles of 2026 back when we thought the budget was around $150 million. Now? It needs to do “top 10 highest-grossing movies of the year” numbers to be considered an out-and-out theatrical hit. That’s an enormous amount of pressure to put on any movie. So, can this one pull it off?
The first reactions to “Project Hail Mary” have critics united, with a lot of praise to go around. That’s a great start. But critical opinion doesn’t always translate to real-world dollars. That’s where things get tricky for this one, as it’s going to require a lot of people getting off the couch, taking a trip to a theater, and paying folding money for a ticket.
Amazon invested a fortune in Project Hail Mary – will it pay off?
“Project Hail Mary” centers on a science teacher (Ryan Gosling) who wakes up on a spaceship light years from home with no recollection of who he is or how he got there. Before long, though, he realizes he must call on his scientific knowledge to save Earth from extinction.
One thing to note is that Amazon doesn’t play by the same rules as the rest of Hollywood. It has exceedingly deep pockets and, ultimately, wants to serve Prime Video. Even modest success at the box office, in essence, can be written off as great promotion for a film’s streaming release.
Setting that aside, the old-school “hit or bomb” box office math of 2.5X the budget equaling baseline success would mean this film needs to make over/under $500 million worldwide. Gosling has one movie not named “Barbie” ($1.4 billion) that has done that before in the form of the Best Picture-winner “La La Land” ($522 million).
The next closest? The cautionary tale that was “Blade Runner 2049,” which topped out at $259 million worldwide, losing a fortune. Star power alone won’t cut it. Ideally, this movie would perform like last year’s “F1” ($633 million worldwide), but returns like those for “Gladiator II” ($462 million/$210 million budget) and “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” ($397 million/$160 million budget) seem far more realistic in the current theatrical marketplace.
What would disaster look like? “The Fall Guy” ($181 million/$130 million budget) isn’t far off. With critics on its side, “Project Hail Mary” is currently tracking to open with over/under $50 million domestically. It’ll need a lot of help from overseas and good legs, but this gamble just might pay off.
“Project Hail Mary” hits theaters on March 20, 2026.
